UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-4). Dillashaw is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 166 points above Cejudo's 1416. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cejudo's striker game against Dillashaw's all-rounder approach. Cejudo brings a versatile approach, while Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Henry Cejudo.** We're leaning Dillashaw here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Allen Crowder (1-1) taking on Greg Hardy (4-4). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hardy at 958 versus Crowder at 846. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crowder throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Greg Hardy over Allen Crowder.** We're leaning Hardy here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Crowder at 20% implied while our model sees 31% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 555 points above Medeiros's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gillespie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Medeiros the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Yancy Medeiros.** The model is firm on this one: Gillespie at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Gillespie at 80% implied while our model sees 92% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-5).

Ortiz carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1291), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Ortiz has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Benavidez's all-rounder game against Ortiz's striker approach. Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ortiz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Dustin Ortiz.** The model gives Benavidez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Benavidez, but our model sees only 61%. That 7-point gap favoring Ortiz is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-3) taking on Rachael Ostovich (1-2). VanZant will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

VanZant is rated at 1038 — 314 points above Ostovich's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ostovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ostovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paige VanZant over Rachael Ostovich.** The model gives VanZant a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Karl Roberson (4-5).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 779 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karl Roberson over Glover Teixeira.** We're leaning Roberson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 50% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 34%. That 15-point gap favoring Roberson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 415 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Hernandez's striker approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Donald Cerrone.** The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 35% implied while our model sees 40% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1101 versus Silva at 976. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Wood's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanne Wood over Ariane da Silva.** The model gives Wood a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Vinicius Moreira (0-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Moreira.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 605 points above Moreira's 602. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Vinicius Moreira.** We're leaning Menifield here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Mario Bautista (10-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sandhagen at 1707 versus Bautista at 1566. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bautista is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sandhagen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 9.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Bautista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Mario Bautista.** The model is firm on this one: Sandhagen at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Te Edwards (0-1). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Bermudez is rated at 1068 — 247 points above Edwards's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Te Edwards.** The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bermudez at 47% implied while our model sees 60% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4). Neal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 500 points above Neal's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Geoff Neal.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Muhammad at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Neal, but our model sees only 50%. That 15-point gap favoring Muhammad is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Chance Rencountre (2-1) taking on Kyle Stewart (0-1).

Rencountre is rated at 1053 — 240 points above Stewart's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rencountre throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Stewart over Chance Rencountre.** The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 39% for Rencountre, but our model sees only 36%. That 3-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.