UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw lands on Saturday, January 19, 2019 in Brooklyn, New York, USA with 13 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo vs TJ DillashawFlyweight | TJ Dillashaw | Lean | 63% |
| Allen Crowder vs Greg HardyHeavyweight | Greg Hardy | Confident | 69% |
| Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy MedeirosLightweight | Gregor Gillespie | Strong | 93% |
| Joseph Benavidez vs Dustin OrtizFlyweight | Joseph Benavidez | Confident | 67% |
| Paige VanZant vs Rachael OstovichWomen's Flyweight | Paige VanZant | Confident | 66% |
| Glover Teixeira vs Karl RobersonLight Heavyweight | Karl Roberson | Lean | 64% |
| Donald Cerrone vs Alexander HernandezLightweight | Donald Cerrone | Toss-up | 51% |
| Joanne Wood vs Ariane da SilvaWomen's Flyweight | Joanne Wood | Confident | 71% |
| Alonzo Menifield vs Vinicius MoreiraLight Heavyweight | Alonzo Menifield | Confident | 73% |
| Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaBantamweight | Cory Sandhagen | Strong | 88% |
| Dennis Bermudez vs Te EdwardsLightweight | Dennis Bermudez | Lean | 58% |
| Geoff Neal vs Belal MuhammadWelterweight | Geoff Neal | Lean | 60% |
| Chance Rencountre vs Kyle StewartWelterweight | Kyle Stewart | Lean | 62% |
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Henry Cejudo vs TJ Dillashaw
The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-6) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-5). Dillashaw is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Dillashaw carries a modest Elo edge (1691 to 1629), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Cejudo's striker game against Dillashaw's all-rounder approach. Cejudo brings a versatile approach, while Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Henry Cejudo. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Allen Crowder vs Greg Hardy
The Heavyweight matchup features Allen Crowder (1-2) taking on Greg Hardy (4-5). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Hardy is rated at 1032 — 209 points above Crowder's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Crowder throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Greg Hardy over Allen Crowder. We're leaning Hardy here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Crowder at 20% implied while our model sees 31% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.
Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy Medeiros
The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (7-1) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-8). Medeiros is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Gillespie is rated at 1654 — 484 points above Medeiros's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Gillespie's submission artist game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Gillespie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Yancy Medeiros. The model is firm on this one: Gillespie at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Gillespie at 80% implied while our model sees 93% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.
Paige VanZant vs Rachael Ostovich
The Women's Flyweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-4) taking on Rachael Ostovich (1-3). VanZant will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
VanZant is rated at 1071 — 466 points above Ostovich's 605. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ostovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ostovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paige VanZant over Rachael Ostovich. We're leaning VanZant here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has VanZant at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.
Glover Teixeira vs Karl Roberson
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Karl Roberson (4-6).
Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 806 points above Roberson's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Roberson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Karl Roberson over Glover Teixeira. The model gives Roberson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 36%. That 14-point gap favoring Roberson is worth watching.
Donald Cerrone vs Alexander Hernandez
The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-14) taking on Alexander Hernandez (10-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.
Hernandez is rated at 1446 — 208 points above Cerrone's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Hernandez's striker approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Alexander Hernandez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cerrone at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 35% implied while our model sees 51% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.
Joanne Wood vs Ariane da Silva
The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (9-8) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-8).
Wood carries a modest Elo edge (1133 to 1091), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joanne Wood over Ariane da Silva. We're leaning Wood here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Alonzo Menifield vs Vinicius Moreira
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-6-1) taking on Vinicius Moreira (0-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Moreira.
Menifield is rated at 1314 — 844 points above Moreira's 470. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Vinicius Moreira. We're leaning Menifield here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-5) taking on Mario Bautista (11-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Sandhagen at 1790 versus Bautista at 1645. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bautista is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sandhagen the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 9.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Bautista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Mario Bautista. The model is firm on this one: Sandhagen at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.
Dennis Bermudez vs Te Edwards
The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (10-7) taking on Te Edwards (0-2). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Bermudez is rated at 1173 — 394 points above Edwards's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Te Edwards. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bermudez at 47% implied while our model sees 58% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.
Geoff Neal vs Belal Muhammad
The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-6) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-5). Neal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Muhammad is rated at 1817 — 375 points above Neal's 1442. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Geoff Neal over Belal Muhammad. The model gives Neal a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Neal, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Muhammad is worth watching.
Chance Rencountre vs Kyle Stewart
The Welterweight matchup features Chance Rencountre (2-2) taking on Kyle Stewart (0-2).
Rencountre is rated at 1103 — 344 points above Stewart's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rencountre throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyle Stewart over Chance Rencountre. The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.