UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Saturday, December 15, 2018·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✗
Al Iaquinta won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Iaquinta 31%69% Lee
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+6.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Lee)
Lightweight✗
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barboza 39%61% Hooker
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Hooker)
Bantamweight✓
Rob Font won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Font 53%47% Pettis
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-7.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Font)
Lightweight✓
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 80%20% Miller
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Oliveira)
Welterweight✗
Zak Ottow won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ottow 28%72% Grant
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Ottow)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Ottow)
Lightweight✓
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 77%23% Green
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Klose)
Lightweight✓
Joaquim Silva won by KO/TKO (R3)
Silva 62%38% Gordon
LEANMarket: 48% (+13.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Gordon)
Middleweight✓
Jack Hermansson won by Submission (R1)
Hermansson 59%41% Meerschaert
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Meerschaert)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Meerschaert)
Middleweight✓
Zak Cummings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummings 74%26% Smith
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Smith)
Featherweight✗
Dan Ige won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ige 47%53% Griffin
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-13.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +9(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Ige)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Ige)
Light Heavyweight✗
Mike Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 45%55% Milstead
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (-0.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -131(favors Milstead)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Milstead)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Milstead)
Heavyweight✓
Juan Adams won by KO/TKO (R3)
Adams 88%12% Rocha
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +113(favors Adams)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Rocha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Rocha)