UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Iaquinta at 1195, Lee at 1197. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's striker game against Lee's wrestler approach. Iaquinta brings a versatile approach, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over Al Iaquinta.** We're leaning Lee here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Iaquinta at 25% implied while our model sees 31% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9).

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 309 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Hooker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Hooker over Edson Barboza.** The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Sergio Pettis (8-5). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1361 versus Pettis at 1235. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Font is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pettis brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Font the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Font over Sergio Pettis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Font, but our model sees only 53%. That 7-point gap favoring Pettis is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Jim Miller (27-17). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 633 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Jim Miller.** The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 73% implied while our model sees 80% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Ottow (4-3) taking on Dwight Grant (3-4). Grant is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ottow at 963 versus Grant at 830. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ottow's all-rounder game against Grant's striker approach. Ottow is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ottow throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ottow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dwight Grant over Zak Ottow.** We're leaning Grant here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Klose is rated at 1397 — 221 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klose's striker game against Green's all-rounder approach. Klose brings a versatile approach, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drakkar Klose over King Green.** The model is firm on this one: Klose at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Klose at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6).

Gordon carries a modest Elo edge (1209 to 1139), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Jared Gordon.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 48% implied while our model sees 62% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Hermansson is rated at 1117 — 250 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Gerald Meerschaert.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 423 points above Smith's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Cummings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zak Cummings over Trevor Smith.** We're leaning Cummings here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Jordan Griffin (1-3). Griffin is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ige is rated at 1235 — 351 points above Griffin's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Griffin over Dan Ige.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Ige, but our model sees only 47%. That 14-point gap favoring Griffin is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mike Rodriguez (2-4) taking on Adam Milstead (1-1). Rodriguez will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Milstead carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 810), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Milstead throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Milstead is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Milstead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adam Milstead over Mike Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Milstead at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Juan Adams (1-2) taking on Chris de la Rocha (1-2).

Rocha carries a modest Elo edge (800 to 751), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rocha throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rocha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Adams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Juan Adams over Chris de la Rocha.** The model is firm on this one: Adams at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Adams at 81% implied while our model sees 88% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.