UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Saturday, December 8, 2018·Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R4)
Holloway 55%45% Ortega
LEANMarket: 50% (+4.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Holloway)
Women's Flyweight✓
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Shevchenko 76%24% Jedrzejczyk
STRONGMarket: 73% (+2.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Shevchenko)
Welterweight✗
Gunnar Nelson won by Submission (R2)
Nelson 33%67% Oliveira
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (-24.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Oliveira)
Featherweight✓
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dawodu 74%26% Bochniak
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+9.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Bochniak)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Bochniak)
Light Heavyweight✓
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 66%34% Manuwa
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+2.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +199(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Santos)
Women's Strawweight✗
Nina Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 32%68% Gadelha
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Gadelha)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Gadelha)
Lightweight✗
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 38%62% Aubin-Mercier
LEANMarket: 44% (-6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Women's Flyweight✗
Jessica Eye won by Decision - Split (R3)
Eye 37%63% Cerminara
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Eye)
Middleweight✓
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Split (R3)
Theodorou 59%41% Anders
LEANMarket: 55% (+3.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +234(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Anders)
Bantamweight✓
Brad Katona won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Katona 61%39% Lopez
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lopez)
Welterweight✗
Dhiego Lima won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lima 33%67% Laprise
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -470(favors Laprise)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Laprise)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Lima)
Lightweight✓
Diego Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ferreira 58%42% Nelson
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
Light Heavyweight✓
Aleksandar Rakic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rakic 88%12% Clark
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Rakic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Clark)