UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Brian Ortega (8-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 407 points above Ortega's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Holloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ortega has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Brian Ortega.** The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 50% implied while our model sees 55% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 605 points above Jedrzejczyk's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's all-rounder game against Jedrzejczyk's striker approach. Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Joanna Jedrzejczyk.** The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 377 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Gunnar Nelson.** We're leaning Oliveira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 58% for Nelson, but our model sees only 33%. That 25-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Kyle Bochniak (2-4). Dawodu will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dawodu is rated at 1090 — 226 points above Bochniak's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bochniak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Kyle Bochniak.** We're leaning Dawodu here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dawodu at 64% implied while our model sees 74% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-5). Manuwa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1292 — 222 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Santos over Jimi Manuwa.** We're leaning Santos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Nina Nunes (4-4) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-4).

Gadelha carries a modest Elo edge (1187 to 1155), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Nina Nunes.** We're leaning Gadelha here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 27% implied while our model sees 32% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4).

Burns is rated at 1379 — 309 points above Aubin-Mercier's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aubin-Mercier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Gilbert Burns.** The model gives Aubin-Mercier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Burns, but our model sees only 38%. That 6-point gap favoring Aubin-Mercier is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-9) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 333 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Eye's knockout artist game against Cerminara's all-rounder approach. Eye is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cerminara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Eye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Jessica Eye.** The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 164 points above Anders's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Theodorou's striker game against Anders's all-rounder approach. Theodorou brings a versatile approach, while Anders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Theodorou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Eryk Anders.** The model gives Theodorou a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Theodorou at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Katona (4-4) taking on Matthew Lopez (2-3). Lopez will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lopez is rated at 999 — 161 points above Katona's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Katona's striker game against Lopez's wrestler approach. Katona brings a versatile approach, while Lopez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Katona has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Katona over Matthew Lopez.** The model gives Katona a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Dhiego Lima (4-6) taking on Chad Laprise (6-3). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lima at 943, Laprise at 927. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Lima's wrestler game against Laprise's striker approach. Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Laprise brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Laprise over Dhiego Lima.** We're leaning Laprise here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 23% implied while our model sees 33% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Kyle Nelson (4-5-1). Ferreira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (1271 to 1213), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Nelson's striker approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Kyle Nelson.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rakic is rated at 1283 — 339 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rakic's striker game against Clark's wrestler approach. Rakic brings a versatile approach, while Clark looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Rakic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Devin Clark.** The model is firm on this one: Rakic at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Rakic at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.