UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5). Ngannou will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 514 points above Blaydes's 1634. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blaydes brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Francis Ngannou.** The model gives Blaydes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 32% implied while our model sees 41% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Sergei Pavlovich (7-3). Pavlovich will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 251 points above Overeem's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pavlovich brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pavlovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Alistair Overeem.** The model gives Pavlovich a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Vince Morales (3-7). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 696 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yadong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Vince Morales.** We're leaning Yadong here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on David Zawada (1-3). Zawada will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 279 points above Zawada's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zawada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Li Jingliang over David Zawada.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jingliang at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Jingliang, but our model sees only 53%. That 13-point gap favoring Zawada is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Song Kenan (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenan at 1007 versus Morono at 868. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Morono's all-rounder game against Kenan's striker approach. Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kenan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Song Kenan.** The model gives Morono a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Wu Yanan (1-4) taking on Lauren Mueller (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yanan.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mueller at 837 versus Yanan at 703. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mueller throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mueller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Mueller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wu Yanan over Lauren Mueller.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yanan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Coulter (0-3) taking on Hu Yaozong (0-2). Coulter will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Coulter carries a modest Elo edge (757 to 696), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coulter throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yaozong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Coulter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hu Yaozong over Rashad Coulter.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yaozong at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Jessica Aguilar (1-3).

Weili is rated at 1649 — 822 points above Aguilar's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zhang Weili over Jessica Aguilar.** The model is firm on this one: Weili at 76%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pingyuan Liu (2-1) taking on Martin Day (0-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Day.

Liu is rated at 923 — 233 points above Day's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liu throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Liu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pingyuan Liu over Martin Day.** The model gives Liu a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Syuri Kondo (1-2). Kondo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 614 points above Kondo's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kondo throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kondo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Syuri Kondo.** The model is firm on this one: Xiaonan at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Xiaonan at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on John Phillips (1-4). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 465 points above Phillips's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holland's all-rounder game against Phillips's striker approach. Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phillips brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over John Phillips.** The model is firm on this one: Holland at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 83% implied while our model sees 89% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Sumudaerji (4-4). Sumudaerji will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 180 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Smolka looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Smolka the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sumudaerji over Louis Smolka.** The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.