UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
Saturday, November 3, 2018·New York City, New York, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/11(55%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R2)
Cormier 89%11% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+10.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +383(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Cormier)
MiddleweightMISS
Jacare Souza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Souza 41%59% Weidman
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Weidman)
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cannonier 38%62% Branch
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 25% (+13.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -403(favors Branch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Branch)
MiddleweightHIT
Karl Roberson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Roberson 91%9% Marshman
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+15.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Marshman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Roberson)
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R1)
Adesanya 79%21% Brunson
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Brunson)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Jordan Rinaldi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rinaldi 21%79% Knight
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 27% (-6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -118(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Rinaldi)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 90%10% Modafferi
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Eubanks)
FeatherweightMISS
Sheymon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 41%59% Arce
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -121(favors Arce)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Arce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arce)
WelterweightHIT
Lyman Good won by KO/TKO (R1)
Good 90%10% Saunders
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+5.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Good)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Good)
Early Prelims
Lightweight
Frevola 25%75% Vannata
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-5.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -211(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Frevola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Vannata)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Submission (R1)
Burgos 87%13% Holobaugh
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +325(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Holobaugh)
HeavyweightMISS
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 38%62% Wieczorek
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 36% (+2.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -175(favors Wieczorek)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wieczorek)