UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 469 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cormier's all-rounder game against Lewis's striker approach. Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lewis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Derrick Lewis.** The model is firm on this one: Cormier at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7). Weidman will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Souza at 1187 versus Weidman at 1060. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacare Souza over Chris Weidman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on David Branch (4-4).

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 290 points above Branch's 1136. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Branch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Branch over Jared Cannonier.** The model is firm on this one: Branch at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Karl Roberson (4-5) taking on Jack Marshman (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marshman at 915 versus Roberson at 817. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Roberson's all-rounder game against Marshman's striker approach. Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marshman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karl Roberson over Jack Marshman.** We're leaning Roberson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya is rated at 1559 — 157 points above Brunson's 1402. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's striker game against Brunson's all-rounder approach. Adesanya brings a versatile approach, while Brunson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Derek Brunson.** The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jordan Rinaldi (2-2) taking on Jason Knight (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rinaldi at 1071 versus Knight at 987. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rinaldi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Jordan Rinaldi.** The model is firm on this one: Knight at 80%. The market implies 27% for Rinaldi, but our model sees only 20%. That 6-point gap favoring Knight is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-4) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Eubanks at 974, Modafferi at 979. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Eubanks's wrestler game against Modafferi's striker approach. Eubanks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Roxanne Modafferi.** The model is firm on this one: Eubanks at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Eubanks at 83% implied while our model sees 91% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sheymon Moraes (2-2) taking on Julio Arce (5-4).

Arce is rated at 1167 — 191 points above Moraes's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julio Arce over Sheymon Moraes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arce at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Lyman Good (3-2) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Good is rated at 1228 — 416 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Good's striker game against Saunders's all-rounder approach. Good brings a versatile approach, while Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Good is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyman Good over Ben Saunders.** The model is firm on this one: Good at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-5-1) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Frevola is rated at 1093 — 195 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Frevola's knockout artist game against Vannata's all-rounder approach. Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lando Vannata over Matt Frevola.** We're leaning Vannata here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Frevola, but our model sees only 26%. That 5-point gap favoring Vannata is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6). Burgos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 533 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Burgos over Kurt Holobaugh.** The model is firm on this one: Burgos at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Burgos at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Adam Wieczorek (2-0). Wieczorek is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 239 points above Wieczorek's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wieczorek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adam Wieczorek over Marcos Rogerio de Lima.** We're leaning Wieczorek here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Lima, but our model sees only 28%. That 7-point gap favoring Wieczorek is worth watching.