UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Saturday, October 27, 2018·Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✗
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R3)
Smith 38%62% Oezdemir
LEANMarket: 40% (-1.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Smith)
Featherweight✓
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 90%10% Lobov
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +251(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Lobov)
Light Heavyweight✓
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 70%30% Cummins
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Cirkunov)
Bantamweight✗
Andre Soukhamthath won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Soukhamthath 39%61% Martinez
LEANMarket: 59% (-20.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Soukhamthath)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Soukhamthath)
Light Heavyweight✓
Gian Villante won by Decision - Split (R3)
Villante 74%26% Herman
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+7.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Villante)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Herman)
Welterweight✗
Court McGee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGee 36%64% Garcia
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Garcia)
Welterweight✓
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Strickland 70%30% Taleb
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (+23.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Taleb)
Lightweight✓
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 81%19% Gouti
STRONGMarket: 86% (-4.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Gouti)
Featherweight✓
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kattar 68%32% Fishgold
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +196(favors Kattar)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Kattar)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Talita Bernardo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bernardo 55%45% Moras
LEANMarket: 38% (+16.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -187(favors Moras)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Bernardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Bernardo)
Lightweight✗
Don Madge won by KO/TKO (R2)
Madge 30%70% Edwards
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Edwards)
Heavyweight✓
Arjan Bhullar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bhullar 58%42% Golm
LEANMarket: 60% (-1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -10(favors Golm)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Golm)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Bhullar)
Lightweight✓
Stevie Ray won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ray 52%48% Ayari
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +89(favors Ray)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Ayari)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Ray)