UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7).

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 431 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Smith's striker game against Oezdemir's all-rounder approach. Smith brings a versatile approach, while Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Volkan Oezdemir over Anthony Smith.** The model gives Oezdemir a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Artem Lobov (2-4). Johnson will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 299 points above Lobov's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's all-rounder game against Lobov's striker approach. Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lobov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lobov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lobov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Artem Lobov.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-6) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cirkunov at 867, Cummins at 867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Cirkunov's wrestler game against Cummins's striker approach. Cirkunov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Cirkunov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Patrick Cummins.** We're leaning Cirkunov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Cirkunov, but our model sees only 70%. That 5-point gap favoring Cummins is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Soukhamthath (2-4) taking on Jonathan Martinez (10-4).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 456 points above Soukhamthath's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Soukhamthath's knockout artist game against Martinez's all-rounder approach. Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Martinez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soukhamthath throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Soukhamthath is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Andre Soukhamthath.** The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Soukhamthath, but our model sees only 39%. That 20-point gap favoring Martinez is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Herman is rated at 1045 — 340 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Villante's striker game against Herman's wrestler approach. Villante brings a versatile approach, while Herman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gian Villante over Ed Herman.** We're leaning Villante here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Villante at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Alex Garcia (5-4). McGee is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

McGee carries a modest Elo edge (1037 to 1006), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Garcia over Court McGee.** The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has McGee at 33% implied while our model sees 36% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Nordine Taleb (7-4).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 838 points above Taleb's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Strickland's all-rounder game against Taleb's striker approach. Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Taleb brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Nordine Taleb.** We're leaning Strickland here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 46% implied while our model sees 70% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Thibault Gouti (1-4).

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 403 points above Gouti's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Haqparast's striker game against Gouti's all-rounder approach. Haqparast brings a versatile approach, while Gouti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Thibault Gouti.** The model is firm on this one: Haqparast at 81%. The market implies 86% for Haqparast, but our model sees only 81%. That 5-point gap favoring Gouti is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Chris Fishgold (1-2). Kattar is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Kattar is rated at 1231 — 334 points above Fishgold's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kattar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Fishgold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Calvin Kattar over Chris Fishgold.** We're leaning Kattar here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Kattar, but our model sees only 68%. That 5-point gap favoring Fishgold is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Talita Bernardo (1-2) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moras.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bernardo at 830, Moras at 808. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bernardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bernardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bernardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Talita Bernardo over Sarah Moras.** The model gives Bernardo a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bernardo at 38% implied while our model sees 55% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Don Madge (1-0) taking on Te Edwards (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Madge.

Madge is rated at 1183 — 362 points above Edwards's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Te Edwards over Don Madge.** We're leaning Edwards here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Madge at 20% implied while our model sees 30% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Arjan Bhullar (2-1) taking on Marcelo Golm (1-2).

Bhullar is rated at 1137 — 353 points above Golm's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Golm throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bhullar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Bhullar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arjan Bhullar over Marcelo Golm.** The model gives Bhullar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Jessin Ayari (1-2). Ayari is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ray is rated at 1193 — 378 points above Ayari's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ayari throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ayari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stevie Ray over Jessin Ayari.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ray at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Ray, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Ayari is worth watching.