UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Saturday, October 6, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R4)
Nurmagomedov 79%21% McGregor
STRONGMarket: 63% (+15.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Nurmagomedov)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ferguson 76%24% Pettis
STRONGMarket: 77% (-0.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Pettis)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Dominick Reyes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reyes 71%29% Preux
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Reyes)
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lewis 43%57% Volkov
LEANMarket: 40% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Volkov)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 45%55% Herrig
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Herrig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Herrig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Waterson-Gomez)
FlyweightMISS
Jussier Formiga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Formiga 38%62% Pettis
LEANMarket: 36% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Formiga)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R1)
Luque 84%16% Turner
STRONGMarket: 86% (-2.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +445(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Luque)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Aspen Ladd won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ladd 74%26% Evinger
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +195(favors Ladd)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Ladd)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Ladd)
LightweightMISS
Scott Holtzman won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holtzman 39%61% Patrick
LEANMarket: 27% (+12.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Patrick)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Patrick)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 72%28% Lansberg
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Lansberg)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Lansberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Santos)
LightweightHIT
Nik Lentz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lentz 79%21% Maynard
STRONGMarket: 68% (+10.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Maynard)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by KO/TKO (R3)
Martin 52%48% LaFlare
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors LaFlare)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Martin)