UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Conor McGregor (10-3). McGregor will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 487 points above McGregor's 1573. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against McGregor's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McGregor brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Conor McGregor. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 63% implied while our model sees 79% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Ferguson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 446 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's knockout artist game against Pettis's wrestler approach. Ferguson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pettis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Anthony Pettis. The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Preux will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 612 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Ovince Saint Preux. We're leaning Reyes here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Alexander Volkov (12-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 388 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Volkov's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 40% implied while our model sees 43% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Felice Herrig (5-4). Herrig will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Waterson-Gomez at 908 versus Herrig at 822. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Waterson-Gomez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Herrig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Waterson-Gomez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herrig throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Herrig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felice Herrig over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. The model gives Herrig a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Sergio Pettis (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pettis at 1235 versus Formiga at 1149. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Formiga's wrestler game against Pettis's striker approach. Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pettis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Jussier Formiga. The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Jalin Turner (7-6). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Turner at 1393 versus Luque at 1250. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Luque's knockout artist game against Turner's all-rounder approach. Luque is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Turner is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Turner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Jalin Turner. The model is firm on this one: Luque at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Aspen Ladd (4-2) taking on Tonya Evinger (0-2). Evinger will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ladd is rated at 1124 — 323 points above Evinger's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ladd throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ladd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Evinger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Tonya Evinger. We're leaning Ladd here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ladd at 63% implied while our model sees 74% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Alan Patrick (5-3). Patrick is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holtzman at 988 versus Patrick at 863. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Patrick over Scott Holtzman. The model gives Patrick a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Holtzman at 27% implied while our model sees 39% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1304 — 433 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Lansberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yana Santos over Lina Lansberg. We're leaning Santos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 185 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Gray Maynard. The model is firm on this one: Lentz at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Lentz at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Ryan LaFlare (7-2).

Martin is rated at 1419 — 246 points above LaFlare's 1174. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martin's wrestler game against LaFlare's striker approach. Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while LaFlare brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Ryan LaFlare. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.