UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Till.

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 165 points above Till's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Woodley's all-rounder game against Till's striker approach. Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Till brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Till throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Till over Tyron Woodley.** The model gives Till a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Woodley, but our model sees only 39%. That 9-point gap favoring Till is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9). Kowalkiewicz is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 244 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Andrade's wrestler game against Kowalkiewicz's striker approach. Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kowalkiewicz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.** The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Magomedsharipov.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 669 points above Davis's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Magomedsharipov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magomedsharipov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedsharipov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Brandon Davis.** The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on John Dodson (10-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivera at 1277, Dodson at 1256. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over John Dodson.** The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Price is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alhassan is rated at 973 — 158 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alhassan's all-rounder game against Price's knockout artist approach. Alhassan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Price is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Niko Price over Abdul Razak Alhassan.** The model gives Price a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Alhassan, but our model sees only 41%. That 9-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 257 points above Esparza's 1274. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Carla Esparza.** The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Suarez at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Sterling will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 752 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sterling's all-rounder game against Stamann's striker approach. Sterling is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Cody Stamann.** The model gives Sterling a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5).

Neal is rated at 1247 — 457 points above Camacho's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Neal's all-rounder game against Camacho's striker approach. Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Geoff Neal over Frank Camacho.** The model gives Neal a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Neal, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Camacho is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-6) taking on Charles Byrd (1-2).

Stewart is rated at 940 — 198 points above Byrd's 741. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Byrd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Byrd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Stewart over Charles Byrd.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stewart at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Stewart at 38% implied while our model sees 53% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Craig White (0-1). White is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 229 points above White's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Craig White over Diego Sanchez.** We're leaning White here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Sanchez, but our model sees only 26%. That 8-point gap favoring White is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Alex White (4-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring White.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 307 points above White's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while White is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex White over Jim Miller.** The model gives White a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7).

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 527 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lucie Pudilova over Irene Aldana.** The model gives Pudilova a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Aldana, but our model sees only 41%. That 10-point gap favoring Pudilova is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jarred Brooks (1-2) taking on Robert Sanchez (1-1). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Brooks carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 899), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jarred Brooks over Robert Sanchez.** The model gives Brooks a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.