UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Saturday, August 25, 2018·Lincoln, Nebraska, USA
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gaethje 54%46% Vick
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+8.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -423(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Vick)
FeatherweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Johnson 29%71% Fili
CONFIDENTMarket: 47% (-17.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Fili)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Cortney Casey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Casey 49%51% Hill
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Hill)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barberena 85%15% Ellenberger
STRONGMarket: 79% (+6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +349(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ellenberger)
FlyweightHIT
Deiveson Figueiredo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Figueiredo 52%48% Moraga
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Moraga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Figueiredo)
MiddleweightHIT
Eryk Anders won by KO/TKO (R3)
Anders 88%12% Williams
STRONGMarket: 90% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +265(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Anders)
WelterweightMISS
James Krause won by KO/TKO (R2)
Krause 30%70% Alves
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Krause)
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sandhagen 63%37% Alcantara
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Sandhagen)
MiddleweightHIT
Andrew Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 61%39% Perez
LEANMarket: 55% (+5.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Sanchez)
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R1)
Gall 63%37% Sullivan
LEANMarket: 75% (-11.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +209(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Gall)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Joanne Wood won by Submission (R1)
Wood 62%38% Faria
LEANMarket: 63% (-0.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +193(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Wood)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dober 73%27% Tuck
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Dober)
BantamweightHIT
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R1)
Yahya 58%42% Sanders
LEANMarket: 50% (+8.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +282(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Yahya)