UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on James Vick (9-4). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 821 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Vick is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Vick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Gaethje over James Vick. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gaethje at 45% implied while our model sees 54% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Andre Fili (12-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Fili at 1140. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Johnson's all-rounder game against Fili's striker approach. Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fili brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Michael Johnson. We're leaning Fili here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 47% for Johnson, but our model sees only 29%. That 18-point gap favoring Fili is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1074 — 169 points above Casey's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Casey's all-rounder game against Hill's striker approach. Casey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angela Hill over Cortney Casey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barberena.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barberena at 960 versus Ellenberger at 847. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Jake Ellenberger. The model is firm on this one: Barberena at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Barberena at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on John Moraga (8-5).

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 324 points above Moraga's 1166. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moraga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraga throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over John Moraga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Moraga is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Tim Williams (0-1).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 260 points above Williams's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eryk Anders over Tim Williams. The model is firm on this one: Anders at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Krause.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 541 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Krause is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over James Krause. We're leaning Alves here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Krause at 25% implied while our model sees 30% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6).

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 661 points above Alcantara's 1046. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sandhagen's wrestler game against Alcantara's knockout artist approach. Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Iuri Alcantara. The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Sanchez (5-4) taking on Markus Perez (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sanchez at 932 versus Perez at 784. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Perez's wrestler approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrew Sanchez over Markus Perez. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 55% implied while our model sees 61% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on George Sullivan (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sullivan at 884 versus Gall at 760. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sullivan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over George Sullivan. The model gives Gall a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Gall, but our model sees only 63%. That 12-point gap favoring Sullivan is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Kalindra Faria (0-2).

Wood is rated at 1101 — 340 points above Faria's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Faria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Kalindra Faria. The model gives Wood a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Jon Tuck (4-4). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dober carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1006), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tuck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tuck the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Jon Tuck. We're leaning Dober here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dober at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Luke Sanders (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yahya at 1030 versus Sanders at 891. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yahya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Luke Sanders. The model gives Yahya a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Yahya at 50% implied while our model sees 58% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.