UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-5) taking on Cody Garbrandt (10-7).

Dillashaw is rated at 1691 — 378 points above Garbrandt's 1313. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dillashaw's all-rounder game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Cody Garbrandt. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-6) taking on Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1).

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1671 to 1629), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Johnson has won 13 straight.

Stylistically this is Cejudo's striker game against Johnson's wrestler approach. Cejudo brings a versatile approach, while Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Henry Cejudo. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (13-7) taking on Cub Swanson (15-10). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1641 — 318 points above Swanson's 1323. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Cub Swanson. The model is firm on this one: Moicano at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 73% implied while our model sees 81% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (10-6) taking on Polyana Viana (4-7).

Aldrich is rated at 1113 — 245 points above Viana's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Viana's wrestler approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Viana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Polyana Viana. The model gives Aldrich a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-10) taking on Kevin Holland (15-12). Holland will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1426 to 1375), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Holland's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Kevin Holland. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-10) taking on Brett Johns (5-2). Johns will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Munhoz at 1369, Johns at 1350. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Brett Johns. We're leaning Munhoz here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-6-1) taking on Montel Jackson (9-3). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1538 — 240 points above Simon's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Simon's all-rounder game against Jackson's knockout artist approach. Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jackson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simon throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Ricky Simon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-7) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-5).

Kang is rated at 1142 — 234 points above Ramos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Kyung Ho Kang. We're leaning Ramos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Sheymon Moraes (2-3) taking on Matt Sayles (1-3). Moraes will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Moraes is rated at 1014 — 162 points above Sayles's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sayles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sayles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Sayles over Sheymon Moraes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sayles at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (8-6) taking on Jose Torres (1-1).

Perez is rated at 1332 — 327 points above Torres's 1005. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Perez over Jose Torres. We're leaning Perez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 56% implied while our model sees 66% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-3) taking on Danielle Taylor (2-3). Weili is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Weili is rated at 1741 — 870 points above Taylor's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danielle Taylor over Zhang Weili. The model gives Taylor a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-11) taking on Wulijiburen (0-3).

Vera is rated at 1489 — 820 points above Wulijiburen's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Wulijiburen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Wulijiburen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Wulijiburen. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.