UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Saturday, July 28, 2018·Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Poirier 62%38% Alvarez
LEANMarket: 62% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Alvarez)
FeatherweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aldo 48%52% Stephens
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+0.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stephens)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jedrzejczyk 74%26% Pennington
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+1.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Pennington)
LightweightMISS
Alexander Hernandez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hernandez 42%58% Aubin-Mercier
LEANMarket: 48% (-6.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -219(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.4(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Aubin-Mercier)
WelterweightMISS
Jordan Mein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mein 49%51% Morono
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-8.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Mein)
FeatherweightHIT
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawodu 88%12% Arnett
STRONGMarket: 79% (+9.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +44(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Arnett)
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R1)
Makhachev 90%10% Johnson
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Makhachev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cutelaba 58%42% Antigulov
LEANMarket: 53% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Antigulov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.5(favors Antigulov)
LightweightHIT
John Makdessi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makdessi 73%27% Pearson
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Pearson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 58%42% Davis
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Davis)
FlyweightMISS
Dustin Ortiz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ortiz 47%53% Nicolau
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+11.5% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +57(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Nicolau)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Ortiz)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Nina Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 44%56% Markos
LEANMarket: 56% (-12.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Markos)
LightweightMISS
Devin Powell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Powell 47%53% Mendoza
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -7(favors Mendoza)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Powell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mendoza)