UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Eddie Alvarez (4-2). Poirier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 283 points above Alvarez's 1398. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's all-rounder game against Alvarez's striker approach. Poirier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alvarez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Eddie Alvarez.** The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 479 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Stephens the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Jose Aldo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stephens at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jedrzejczyk at 1192, Pennington at 1206. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's striker game against Pennington's all-rounder approach. Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Tecia Pennington.** We're leaning Jedrzejczyk here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 399 points above Aubin-Mercier's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Aubin-Mercier's wrestler approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 8.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Alexander Hernandez.** The model gives Aubin-Mercier a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Hernandez, but our model sees only 42%. That 6-point gap favoring Aubin-Mercier is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jordan Mein (4-4) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

Mein is rated at 1192 — 323 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Jordan Mein.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morono at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Mein, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Morono is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Austin Arnett (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Arnett.

Dawodu is rated at 1090 — 209 points above Arnett's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Austin Arnett.** The model is firm on this one: Dawodu at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Dawodu at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Kajan Johnson (4-2). Johnson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1042 points above Johnson's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Kajan Johnson.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3). Cutelaba is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 371 points above Antigulov's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cutelaba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Antigulov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Cutelaba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Antigulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Antigulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Gadzhimurad Antigulov.** The model gives Cutelaba a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cutelaba at 53% implied while our model sees 58% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Pearson at 849. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Makdessi over Ross Pearson.** We're leaning Makdessi here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Makdessi at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerminara.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 253 points above Davis's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cerminara's striker game against Davis's wrestler approach. Cerminara brings a versatile approach, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Alexis Davis.** The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Matheus Nicolau (7-3).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 295 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ortiz brings a versatile approach, while Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Nicolau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Dustin Ortiz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nicolau at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ortiz at 36% implied while our model sees 47% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Nina Nunes (4-4) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1).

Nunes is rated at 1155 — 181 points above Markos's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randa Markos over Nina Nunes.** The model gives Markos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Nunes, but our model sees only 44%. That 12-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Devin Powell (1-2) taking on Alvaro Herrera Mendoza (1-2).

Powell is rated at 908 — 170 points above Mendoza's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Powell throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendoza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendoza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alvaro Herrera Mendoza over Devin Powell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mendoza at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.