UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Saturday, May 10, 2025·Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Jack Della Maddalena won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Maddalena 39%61% Muhammad
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -249(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Muhammad)
Women's Flyweight✓
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Shevchenko 53%47% Fiorot
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Fiorot)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Fiorot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Shevchenko)
Featherweight✓
Aiemann Zahabi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zahabi 51%49% Aldo
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -140(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Zahabi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Aldo)
Women's Flyweight✓
Natalia Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 61%39% Grasso
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Grasso)
Lightweight✓
Benoit Saint Denis won by Submission (R2)
Denis 78%22% Prepolec
STRONG
→Elo gap: +539(favors Denis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Denis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Denis)
Welterweight✓
Mike Malott won by KO/TKO (R2)
Malott 64%36% Radtke
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Malott)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Malott)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Malott)
Women's Flyweight✓
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Submission (R1)
Jasudavicius 68%32% Andrade
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Jasudavicius)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Jasudavicius)
Light Heavyweight✓
Modestas Bukauskas won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bukauskas 57%43% Cutelaba
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Cutelaba)
Light Heavyweight✓
Navajo Stirling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stirling 73%27% Erslan
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +119(favors Stirling)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Stirling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Erslan)
Middleweight✓
Marc-Andre Barriault won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barriault 53%47% Silva
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Silva)
Featherweight✗
Daniel Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 41%59% Lee
LEAN
→Elo gap: +244(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Santos)
Bantamweight✗
Bekzat Almakhan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almakhan 38%62% Katona
LEAN
→Elo gap: +30(favors Almakhan)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Katona)