UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maddalena at 1877 versus Muhammad at 1747. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Maddalena's knockout artist game against Muhammad's wrestler approach. Maddalena is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Muhammad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Jack Della Maddalena.** The model gives Muhammad a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Manon Fiorot (7-1).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 156 points above Fiorot's 1641. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's all-rounder game against Fiorot's striker approach. Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fiorot brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Manon Fiorot.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shevchenko at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8).

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 166 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Zahabi's striker game against Aldo's all-rounder approach. Zahabi brings a versatile approach, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zahabi throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Jose Aldo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zahabi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Alexa Grasso (8-4-1).

Silva is rated at 1618 — 242 points above Grasso's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Grasso's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grasso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Natalia Silva over Alexa Grasso.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Kyle Prepolec (0-3). Denis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Denis is rated at 1743 — 970 points above Prepolec's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Prepolec has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Kyle Prepolec.** The model is firm on this one: Denis at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Charles Radtke (3-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Malott.

Malott is rated at 1410 — 329 points above Radtke's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Malott's all-rounder game against Radtke's striker approach. Malott is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Radtke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malott throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Radtke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Malott over Charles Radtke.** The model gives Malott a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Jasudavicius is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 243 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jasudavicius's wrestler game against Andrade's knockout artist approach. Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Jessica Andrade.** We're leaning Jasudavicius here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bukauskas at 1168, Cutelaba at 1147. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bukauskas's knockout artist game against Cutelaba's wrestler approach. Bukauskas is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cutelaba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Ion Cutelaba.** The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Navajo Stirling (2-0) taking on Ivan Erslan (0-2). Stirling is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Stirling is rated at 1202 — 367 points above Erslan's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stirling throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Erslan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Stirling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Navajo Stirling over Ivan Erslan.** We're leaning Stirling here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Bruno Silva (4-6).

Barriault is rated at 954 — 157 points above Silva's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barriault's all-rounder game against Silva's striker approach. Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Bruno Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barriault at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Santos (3-1) taking on JeongYeong Lee (2-1). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1320 — 383 points above Lee's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JeongYeong Lee over Daniel Santos.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bekzat Almakhan (1-1) taking on Brad Katona (4-4). Almakhan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Almakhan is rated at 1013 — 174 points above Katona's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Katona is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Katona has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Katona over Bekzat Almakhan.** The model gives Katona a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.