UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Saturday, July 7, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Daniel Cormier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cormier 40%60% Miocic
LEANMarket: 36% (+3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Miocic)
Heavyweight✗
Derrick Lewis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lewis 29%71% Ngannou
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+1.9% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Lewis)
Welterweight✗
Mike Perry won by Decision - Split (R3)
Perry 38%62% Felder
LEANMarket: 40% (-2.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -294(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Perry)
Lightweight✓
Anthony Pettis won by Submission (R2)
Pettis 50%50% Chiesa
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+11.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Chiesa)
Light Heavyweight✗
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 45%55% Saki
LEAN
→Elo gap: +47(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.2(favors Saki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Saki)
Middleweight✓
Paulo Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 59%41% Hall
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hall)
Bantamweight✗
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Assuncao 50%50% Font
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-7.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +190(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Font)
Lightweight✗
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 42%58% Vannata
LEANMarket: 36% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Klose)
Welterweight✓
Curtis Millender won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Millender 56%44% Griffin
LEANMarket: 61% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +52(favors Millender)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Millender)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Griffin)
Lightweight✓
Dan Hooker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hooker 67%33% Burns
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Burns)
Women's Strawweight✓
Emily Whitmire won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Whitmire 67%33% Moyle
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (+31.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -79(favors Moyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Moyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Moyle)