UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Stipe Miocic (14-4). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cormier at 1835, Miocic at 1847. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Cormier's all-rounder game against Miocic's striker approach. Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miocic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Daniel Cormier.** The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 36% implied while our model sees 40% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Francis Ngannou (11-2). Ngannou will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 782 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Derrick Lewis.** We're leaning Ngannou here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-7) taking on Paul Felder (9-5).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 297 points above Perry's 1066. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perry's striker game against Felder's all-rounder approach. Perry brings a versatile approach, while Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Felder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Felder over Mike Perry.** The model gives Felder a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pettis at 1512, Chiesa at 1490. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Michael Chiesa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pettis at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 38% implied while our model sees 50% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Gokhan Saki (1-0). Jr. will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 547 points above Saki's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saki throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Saki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Saki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gokhan Saki over Khalil Rountree Jr..** The model gives Saki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Costa at 1513 versus Hall at 1378. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Costa brings a versatile approach, while Hall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Hall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paulo Costa over Uriah Hall.** The model gives Costa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Rob Font (12-7). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Font is rated at 1361 — 263 points above Assuncao's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Assuncao's all-rounder game against Font's knockout artist approach. Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Font is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Font over Raphael Assuncao.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Assuncao, but our model sees only 50%. That 8-point gap favoring Font is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Klose is rated at 1397 — 499 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klose's striker game against Vannata's all-rounder approach. Klose brings a versatile approach, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lando Vannata over Drakkar Klose.** The model gives Vannata a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Klose at 36% implied while our model sees 42% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Curtis Millender (3-1) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Millender.

Millender carries a modest Elo edge (1185 to 1152), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Millender throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Millender has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Millender over Max Griffin.** The model gives Millender a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Millender, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Griffin is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hooker carries a modest Elo edge (1450 to 1379), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Hooker over Gilbert Burns.** We're leaning Hooker here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Emily Whitmire (2-3) taking on Jamie Moyle (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Whitmire.

Moyle is rated at 864 — 162 points above Whitmire's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moyle throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Whitmire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Emily Whitmire over Jamie Moyle.** We're leaning Whitmire here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Whitmire at 36% implied while our model sees 67% — a 31-point disagreement that could signal value.