UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Saturday, June 9, 2018·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Split (R5)
Whittaker 78%22% Romero
STRONGMarket: 73% (+5.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Romero)
Welterweight✓
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Covington 70%30% Anjos
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Anjos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.2(favors Covington)
Women's Featherweight✓
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 58%42% Anderson
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Holm)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Holm)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Anderson)
Heavyweight✓
Tai Tuivasa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tuivasa 76%24% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 68% (+7.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -101(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Arlovski)
Welterweight
Punk 35%65% Jackson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +168(favors Punk)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jackson)
Heavyweight✓
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Blaydes 73%27% Overeem
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+8.9% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -122(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.8(favors Blaydes)
Women's Strawweight✓
Claudia Gadelha won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gadelha 82%18% Esparza
STRONGMarket: 79% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Gadelha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Esparza)
Featherweight✓
Mirsad Bektic won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bektic 74%26% Lamas
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Lamas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Bektic)
Heavyweight✗
Chris de la Rocha won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rocha 48%52% Coulter
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +33(favors Rocha)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Rocha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Coulter)
Light Heavyweight✓
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 75%25% Evans
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+7.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Evans)
Flyweight✓
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pettis 54%46% Benavidez
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+18.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -262(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Pettis)
Lightweight✓
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 57%43% Guida
LEANMarket: 57% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Oliveira)
Featherweight✗
Dan Ige won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ige 49%51% Santiago
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +93(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Santiago)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Santiago)