UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Yoel Romero (9-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Romero at 1613 versus Whittaker at 1528. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Romero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Yoel Romero.** The model is firm on this one: Whittaker at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 73% implied while our model sees 78% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Covington is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Covington is rated at 1630 — 349 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Covington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colby Covington over Rafael Dos Anjos.** We're leaning Covington here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Megan Anderson (3-2). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anderson carries a modest Elo edge (1187 to 1127), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holm's striker game against Anderson's all-rounder approach. Holm brings a versatile approach, while Anderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holm throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Holly Holm over Megan Anderson.** The model gives Holm a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Holm, but our model sees only 58%. That 3-point gap favoring Anderson is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Tuivasa is rated at 1107 — 249 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tuivasa's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Tuivasa brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Andrei Arlovski.** The model is firm on this one: Tuivasa at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Tuivasa at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features CM Punk (0-1) taking on Mike Jackson (1-1).

Punk is rated at 924 — 168 points above Jackson's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Jackson over CM Punk.** The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7).

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 222 points above Overeem's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Blaydes brings a versatile approach, while Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Alistair Overeem.** We're leaning Blaydes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 64% implied while our model sees 73% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gadelha.

There's a real Elo separation here: Esparza at 1274 versus Gadelha at 1187. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Gadelha is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gadelha throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Carla Esparza.** The model is firm on this one: Gadelha at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-3) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6).

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 275 points above Bektic's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bektic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bektic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lamas throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Ricardo Lamas.** We're leaning Bektic here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bektic at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris de la Rocha (1-2) taking on Rashad Coulter (0-3). Rocha is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Rocha carries a modest Elo edge (800 to 757), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rocha throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Coulter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Coulter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashad Coulter over Chris de la Rocha.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Coulter at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Evans carries a modest Elo edge (1121 to 1070), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Smith's all-rounder game against Evans's striker approach. Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Rashad Evans.** We're leaning Smith here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Benavidez carries a modest Elo edge (1291 to 1235), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Pettis's striker game against Benavidez's all-rounder approach. Pettis brings a versatile approach, while Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Joseph Benavidez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pettis at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 35% implied while our model sees 54% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 920 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Clay Guida.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Mike Santiago (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santiago.

Ige is rated at 1235 — 507 points above Santiago's 728. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santiago throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Santiago over Dan Ige.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santiago at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Ige, but our model sees only 49%. That 3-point gap favoring Santiago is worth watching.