UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Yana Santos (6-5).

Justino carries a modest Elo edge (1362 to 1304), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Justino throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Justino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Yana Santos.** The model is firm on this one: Justino at 85%. The market implies 90% for Justino, but our model sees only 85%. That 5-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1).

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 305 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortega looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortega the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Brian Ortega.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edgar at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ortega at 40% implied while our model sees 48% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Andre Soukhamthath (2-4). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 861 points above Soukhamthath's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Soukhamthath the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Malley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Andre Soukhamthath.** We're leaning O'Malley here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has O'Malley at 53% implied while our model sees 71% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Arlovski at 858, Struve at 878. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stefan Struve over Andrei Arlovski.** We're leaning Struve here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 34%. That 3-point gap favoring Struve is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Cat Zingano (3-3).

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 286 points above Zingano's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Zingano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Cat Zingano.** We're leaning Vieira here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 60% implied while our model sees 72% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 706 points above Yoder's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Yoder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoder throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Ashley Yoder.** The model is firm on this one: Dern at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Dern at 80% implied while our model sees 85% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1).

Hernandez carries a modest Elo edge (1469 to 1437), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Dariush's all-rounder approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Alexander Hernandez.** The model is firm on this one: Dariush at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Munhoz.

Dodson carries a modest Elo edge (1256 to 1211), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Munhoz's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Munhoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Dodson over Pedro Munhoz.** We're leaning Dodson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dollaway at 965, Lombard at 964. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Hector Lombard.** We're leaning Dollaway here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Ottow (4-3) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ottow at 963 versus Pyle at 831. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ottow's all-rounder game against Pyle's knockout artist approach. Ottow is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ottow throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ottow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zak Ottow over Mike Pyle.** The model is firm on this one: Ottow at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Ottow at 74% implied while our model sees 81% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Bryan Caraway (6-3). Caraway is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Caraway is rated at 1191 — 259 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stamann's striker game against Caraway's wrestler approach. Stamann brings a versatile approach, while Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Stamann over Bryan Caraway.** The model gives Stamann a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stamann at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jordan Johnson (3-0) taking on Adam Milstead (1-1). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1282 — 427 points above Milstead's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Milstead throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Milstead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Johnson over Adam Milstead.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 70% implied while our model sees 79% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.