UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Sunday, February 18, 2018·Austin, Texas, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cerrone 52%48% Medeiros
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -260(favors Medeiros)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Cerrone)
Heavyweight✓
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lewis 59%41% Tybura
LEANMarket: 48% (+11.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Tybura)
Lightweight✓
James Vick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vick 67%33% Trinaldo
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+0.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Trinaldo)
Welterweight✓
Curtis Millender won by KO/TKO (R2)
Millender 50%50% Alves
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -325(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Alves)
Featherweight✗
Brandon Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 46%54% Peterson
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-14.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -94(favors Peterson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Davis)
Lightweight✓
Sage Northcutt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Northcutt 76%24% Gouti
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Gouti)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Northcutt)
Lightweight✗
Diego Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ferreira 35%65% Gordon
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Gordon)
Welterweight✓
Geoff Neal won by Submission (R1)
Neal 56%44% Camozzi
LEAN
→Elo gap: +152(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Camozzi)
Flyweight✗
Robert Sanchez won by Submission (R1)
Sanchez 48%52% Sanchez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +36(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Sanchez)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Lucie Pudilova won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pudilova 65%35% Moras
LEANMarket: 58% (+6.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Moras)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Pudilova)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Moras)
Welterweight✓
Alex Morono won by Submission (R1)
Morono 65%35% Burkman
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +310(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Burkman)
Middleweight✓
Oskar Piechota won by KO/TKO (R1)
Piechota 77%23% Williams
STRONGMarket: 75% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +53(favors Piechota)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Piechota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Piechota)