UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Cerrone carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 999), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Yancy Medeiros. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cerrone at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lewis at 1366 versus Tybura at 1242. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 48% implied while our model sees 59% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 303 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vick's knockout artist game against Trinaldo's all-rounder approach. Vick is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Francisco Trinaldo. We're leaning Vick here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Curtis Millender (3-1) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Millender is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Millender is rated at 1185 — 284 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Millender has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Millender over Thiago Alves. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Millender at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Millender at 41% implied while our model sees 50% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Brandon Davis (2-6) taking on Steven Peterson (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Peterson at 920 versus Davis at 825. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Peterson over Brandon Davis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Peterson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Davis, but our model sees only 46%. That 14-point gap favoring Peterson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Thibault Gouti (1-4).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 418 points above Gouti's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouti throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Northcutt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Thibault Gouti. The model is firm on this one: Northcutt at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Ferreira will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ferreira at 1213, Gordon at 1209. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's wrestler game against Gordon's striker approach. Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gordon over Diego Ferreira. We're leaning Gordon here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Brian Camozzi (0-2). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Neal is rated at 1247 — 464 points above Camozzi's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geoff Neal over Brian Camozzi. The model gives Neal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Robert Sanchez (1-1) taking on Joby Sanchez (1-3).

Sanchez is rated at 899 — 168 points above Sanchez's 731. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joby Sanchez over Robert Sanchez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanchez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lucie Pudilova (3-7) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pudilova at 803, Moras at 808. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moras looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moras the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pudilova throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moras is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pudilova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucie Pudilova over Sarah Moras. The model gives Pudilova a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pudilova at 58% implied while our model sees 65% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Morono at 868 versus Burkman at 743. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burkman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Morono a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Oskar Piechota (2-3) taking on Tim Williams (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Piechota at 831, Williams at 846. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Piechota throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Piechota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oskar Piechota over Tim Williams. The model is firm on this one: Piechota at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.