UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 387 points above Anders's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Machida's all-rounder game against Anders's striker approach. Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anders brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eryk Anders over Lyoto Machida.** The model gives Anders a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 894 points above Cachoeira's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's all-rounder game against Cachoeira's striker approach. Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shevchenko throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Cachoeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Priscila Cachoeira.** We're leaning Shevchenko here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Desmond Green (3-3). Green is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Green carries a modest Elo edge (1221 to 1157), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Prazeres's wrestler game against Green's striker approach. Prazeres looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Green brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Desmond Green.** The model gives Prazeres a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Timothy Johnson (3-3) taking on Marcelo Golm (1-2).

Johnson is rated at 1067 — 283 points above Golm's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Golm throws significantly more leather — a 13.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Golm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Golm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcelo Golm over Timothy Johnson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Golm at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 315 points above Andrade's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vera looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vera the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Douglas Silva de Andrade.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 222 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Santos over Anthony Smith.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Moraes is rated at 1097 — 224 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Tim Means.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5). Patrick is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Patrick at 863, Hadzovic at 882. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Patrick's wrestler game against Hadzovic's striker approach. Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hadzovic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patrick throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Patrick over Damir Hadzovic.** We're leaning Patrick here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Polyana Viana (4-6) taking on Maia Stevenson (0-0). Viana will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Viana at 868, Stevenson at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stevenson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Polyana Viana over Maia Stevenson.** We're leaning Viana here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Joe Soto (3-4). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alcantara at 1046 versus Soto at 963. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Alcantara looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Soto is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Alcantara the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Soto over Iuri Alcantara.** The model gives Soto a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Joseph Morales (2-2).

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 341 points above Morales's 1149. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Joseph Morales.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.