UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
Sunday, January 14, 2018·St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Jeremy Stephens won by KO/TKO (R2)
Stephens 62%38% Choi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Choi)
Women's Flyweight✗
Jessica-Rose Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 44%56% VanZant
LEANMarket: 50% (-5.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Clark)
Welterweight✓
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 93%7% Meek
STRONGMarket: 85% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +426(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Usman)
Featherweight✓
Darren Elkins won by Submission (R2)
Elkins 66%34% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (+28.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +315(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Elkins)
Lightweight✗
James Krause won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krause 42%58% White
LEANMarket: 62% (-19.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Krause)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors White)
Lightweight✗
Marco Polo Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 33%67% Frevola
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-1.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Frevola)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Irene Aldana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldana 47%53% Bernardo
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-16.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -72(favors Bernardo)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Bernardo)
Bantamweight✓
Kyung Ho Kang won by Submission (R1)
Kang 70%30% Cannetti
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Kang)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Cannetti)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Cannetti)
Women's Flyweight✓
Jessica Eye won by Decision - Split (R3)
Eye 57%43% Faria
LEANMarket: 54% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -25(favors Faria)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Eye)
Women's Strawweight✓
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 67%33% Taylor
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -47(favors Taylor)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Taylor)
Featherweight✓
Mads Burnell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burnell 52%48% Santiago
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+15.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +73(favors Burnell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Santiago)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Santiago)