UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Dooho Choi (4-3-1).

Choi is rated at 1314 — 373 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stephens's all-rounder game against Choi's knockout artist approach. Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Choi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Dooho Choi.** The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4) taking on Paige VanZant (5-3).

VanZant is rated at 1038 — 277 points above Clark's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against VanZant's all-rounder approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while VanZant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paige VanZant over Jessica-Rose Clark.** The model gives VanZant a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Clark, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring VanZant is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Emil Meek (1-2).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 824 points above Meek's 1005. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Emil Meek.** The model is firm on this one: Usman at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 85% implied while our model sees 93% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Elkins at 1113. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Elkins over Michael Johnson.** We're leaning Elkins here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 38% implied while our model sees 66% — a 29-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Alex White (4-5). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 529 points above White's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex White over James Krause.** The model gives White a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Krause, but our model sees only 42%. That 20-point gap favoring White is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Marco Polo Reyes (4-3) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1).

Frevola is rated at 1093 — 321 points above Reyes's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Reyes brings a versatile approach, while Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Frevola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Frevola over Marco Polo Reyes.** We're leaning Frevola here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Talita Bernardo (1-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Aldana.

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 501 points above Bernardo's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bernardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Talita Bernardo over Irene Aldana.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bernardo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Aldana, but our model sees only 47%. That 16-point gap favoring Bernardo is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-5). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kang at 1029, Cannetti at 1005. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Guido Cannetti.** We're leaning Kang here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Kang, but our model sees only 70%. That 4-point gap favoring Cannetti is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-9) taking on Kalindra Faria (0-2).

Eye is rated at 950 — 188 points above Faria's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Eye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Eye over Kalindra Faria.** The model gives Eye a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Danielle Taylor (2-2). Aldrich is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 187 points above Taylor's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Danielle Taylor.** We're leaning Aldrich here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Mads Burnell (1-1) taking on Mike Santiago (0-2).

Burnell is rated at 977 — 249 points above Santiago's 728. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Burnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mads Burnell over Mike Santiago.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burnell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Burnell at 36% implied while our model sees 52% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.