UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Saturday, April 26, 2025·Kansas City, Missouri, USA
Model Record: 9/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Ian Machado Garry won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Garry 63%37% Prates
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Garry)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Prates)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Garry)
Light Heavyweight✓
Zhang Mingyang won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mingyang 57%43% Smith
LEAN
→Elo gap: +20(favors Mingyang)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Mingyang)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Smith)
Featherweight✗
David Onama won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Onama 49%51% Chikadze
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -163(favors Chikadze)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Onama)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Onama)
Middleweight✓
Abus Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 67%33% Pereira
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Magomedov)
Welterweight✓
Randy Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 60%40% Dalby
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Brown)
Middleweight✗
Ikram Aliskerov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aliskerov 42%58% Muniz
LEAN
→Elo gap: -50(favors Muniz)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.5(favors Aliskerov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Muniz)
Flyweight✓
Matt Schnell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Schnell 60%40% Flick
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Flick)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Flick)
Lightweight✗
Evan Elder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elder 43%57% Young
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Young)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Elder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Elder)
Featherweight✓
Chris Gutierrez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gutierrez 56%44% Castaneda
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Castaneda)
Bantamweight✗
Da'Mon Blackshear won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blackshear 43%57% Alatengheili
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Blackshear)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Blackshear)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Blackshear)
Bantamweight✗
Malcolm Wellmaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wellmaker 37%63% Saaiman
LEAN
→Elo gap: +6(favors Wellmaker)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Saaiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Saaiman)
Women's Strawweight✓
Jaqueline Amorim won by Submission (R2)
Amorim 60%40% Viana
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +413(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Amorim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Amorim)
Featherweight✓
Timmy Cuamba won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cuamba 55%45% Romero
LEAN
→Elo gap: -126(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Cuamba)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Joselyne Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 66%34% Chandler
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -35(favors Chandler)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Edwards)