UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Carlos Prates (5-1). Prates will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Garry at 1787, Prates at 1806. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Garry's all-rounder game against Prates's striker approach. Garry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Prates brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Garry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Carlos Prates. The model gives Garry a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zhang Mingyang (3-0) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mingyang at 1188 versus Smith at 1070. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mingyang rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mingyang throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Mingyang over Anthony Smith. The model gives Mingyang a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features David Onama (6-2) taking on Giga Chikadze (8-3).

Onama is rated at 1311 — 160 points above Chikadze's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Onama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over David Onama. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chikadze at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Abus Magomedov (4-2) taking on Michel Pereira (9-5). Magomedov will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Magomedov is rated at 1280 — 167 points above Pereira's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Magomedov's wrestler game against Pereira's knockout artist approach. Magomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abus Magomedov over Michel Pereira. We're leaning Magomedov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 1381 versus Dalby at 1283. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Nicolas Dalby. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikram Aliskerov (3-1) taking on Andre Muniz (6-3).

Aliskerov is rated at 1439 — 405 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliskerov throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Muniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Muniz over Ikram Aliskerov. The model gives Muniz a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Jimmy Flick (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Schnell at 899 versus Flick at 818. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Schnell is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Schnell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Flick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Schnell over Jimmy Flick. The model gives Schnell a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Elder (2-2) taking on Gauge Young (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Elder at 1085 versus Young at 996. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elder throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gauge Young over Evan Elder. The model gives Young a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on John Castaneda (4-3). Castaneda will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 180 points above Castaneda's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gutierrez's striker game against Castaneda's all-rounder approach. Gutierrez brings a versatile approach, while Castaneda is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castaneda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over John Castaneda. The model gives Gutierrez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1) taking on Alatengheili (5-2-1). Blackshear is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Blackshear at 1216 versus Alatengheili at 1129. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Blackshear's submission artist game against Alatengheili's striker approach. Blackshear is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Alatengheili brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alatengheili over Da'Mon Blackshear. The model gives Alatengheili a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Malcolm Wellmaker (2-0) taking on Cameron Saaiman (3-2). Wellmaker is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Wellmaker is rated at 1034 — 166 points above Saaiman's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saaiman throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Saaiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Wellmaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Malcolm Wellmaker. The model gives Saaiman a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jaqueline Amorim (4-1) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6).

Amorim is rated at 1177 — 309 points above Viana's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Amorim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amorim throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Amorim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Polyana Viana. The model gives Amorim a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Timmy Cuamba (1-2) taking on Roberto Romero (0-1).

Cuamba is rated at 1127 — 332 points above Romero's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cuamba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Cuamba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timmy Cuamba over Roberto Romero. The model gives Cuamba a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Chelsea Chandler (2-2).

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 407 points above Chandler's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Chelsea Chandler. We're leaning Edwards here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.