UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Featherweight championship matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Holly Holm (8-6).

Justino is rated at 1362 — 235 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Justino throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Justino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Justino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Holly Holm.** We're leaning Justino here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 918 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Barboza's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Edson Barboza.** We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 400 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hooker's all-rounder game against Diakiese's striker approach. Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diakiese brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Dan Hooker.** The model gives Diakiese a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Calvillo.

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 363 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Calvillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Cynthia Calvillo.** The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). Magny will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Magny at 1270 versus Condit at 1165. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Carlos Condit.** The model gives Magny a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 238 points above Oleksiejczuk's 1268. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Michal Oleksiejczuk.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jr. at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1). Jury will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jury is rated at 1141 — 255 points above Glenn's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jury looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jury the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Glenn throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Myles Jury over Ricky Glenn.** We're leaning Jury here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vettori at 1280, Akhmedov at 1303. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Akhmedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Omari Akhmedov.** The model gives Vettori a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nicolau is rated at 1033 — 159 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Smolka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Nicolau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicolau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Louis Smolka.** The model gives Nicolau a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Mark De La Rosa (2-4).

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 506 points above Rosa's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elliott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Elliott over Mark De La Rosa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.