UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Saturday, December 9, 2017·Fresno, California, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Brian Ortega won by Submission (R2)
Ortega 57%43% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 51% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Ortega)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Swanson)
FeatherweightMISS
Gabriel Benitez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benitez 26%74% Knight
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+0.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -361(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Knight)
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Moraes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraes 40%60% Sterling
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 58% (-18.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -304(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Sterling)
LightweightMISS
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 48%52% Horcher
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -27(favors Horcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Holtzman)
MiddleweightHIT
Eryk Anders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anders 86%14% Perez
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+7.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.9(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Anders)
BantamweightHIT
Benito Lopez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopez 53%47% Morales
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +35(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Morales)
Prelims
Women's FlyweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Davis 60%40% Carmouche
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 43% (+16.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Carmouche)
BantamweightMISS
Andre Soukhamthath won by KO/TKO (R2)
Soukhamthath 29%71% Sanders
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+2.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -247(favors Sanders)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.2(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Sanders)
BantamweightMISS
Alex Perez won by Submission (R2)
Perez 44%56% Tomas
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Tomas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Tomas)
BantamweightMISS
Frankie Saenz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saenz 39%61% Dvalishvili
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 38% (+1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Saenz)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 66%34% Alcantara
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alcantara)
LightweightHIT
Davi Ramos won by Submission (R3)
Ramos 83%17% Gruetzemacher
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+5.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -80(favors Gruetzemacher)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Gruetzemacher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gruetzemacher)
MiddleweightHIT
Trevin Giles won by KO/TKO (R3)
Giles 77%23% Neto
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +61(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Giles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.9(favors Giles)