UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10).

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 235 points above Swanson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ortega has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cub Swanson over Brian Ortega.** The model gives Swanson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Ortega, but our model sees only 45%. That 7-point gap favoring Swanson is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Jason Knight (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Knight at 987 versus Benitez at 856. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Benitez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Knight is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Benitez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Gabriel Benitez.** We're leaning Knight here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-5) taking on Aljamain Sterling (16-5). Sterling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 528 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Marlon Moraes.** We're leaning Sterling here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 58% for Moraes, but our model sees only 34%. That 24-point gap favoring Sterling is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Darrell Horcher (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Holtzman at 988 versus Horcher at 860. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darrell Horcher over Scott Holtzman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Horcher at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Holtzman, but our model sees only 46%. That 9-point gap favoring Horcher is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Markus Perez (2-4).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 322 points above Perez's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Perez's wrestler approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eryk Anders over Markus Perez.** The model is firm on this one: Anders at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Anders at 79% implied while our model sees 90% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Benito Lopez (2-1) taking on Albert Morales (1-3-1).

Lopez is rated at 1006 — 201 points above Morales's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benito Lopez over Albert Morales.** The model gives Lopez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Carmouche at 1127 versus Davis at 1030. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexis Davis over Liz Carmouche.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Davis at 43% implied while our model sees 57% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Soukhamthath (2-4) taking on Luke Sanders (3-4). Soukhamthath is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Soukhamthath at 887, Sanders at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Soukhamthath's knockout artist game against Sanders's all-rounder approach. Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Sanders over Andre Soukhamthath.** We're leaning Sanders here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Carls John De Tomas (0-1). Tomas will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1293 — 462 points above Tomas's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tomas throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carls John De Tomas over Alex Perez.** The model gives Tomas a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-4) taking on Merab Dvalishvili (14-2).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 979 points above Saenz's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili has won 14 straight.

The style clash matters here: Saenz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Frankie Saenz.** The model gives Dvalishvili a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Perez carries a modest Elo edge (1082 to 1046), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Perez brings a versatile approach, while Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alcantara the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Iuri Alcantara.** We're leaning Perez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Davi Ramos (4-2) taking on Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3).

Ramos is rated at 1160 — 159 points above Gruetzemacher's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ramos's wrestler game against Gruetzemacher's striker approach. Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gruetzemacher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Davi Ramos over Chris Gruetzemacher.** The model is firm on this one: Ramos at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 77% implied while our model sees 84% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on Antonio Braga Neto (1-1). Neto is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Neto at 968 versus Giles at 845. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevin Giles over Antonio Braga Neto.** We're leaning Giles here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Giles at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.