UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 477 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Holloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Jose Aldo.** The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 71% implied while our model sees 76% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7). Ngannou will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 736 points above Overeem's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ngannou throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ngannou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Alistair Overeem.** The model is firm on this one: Ngannou at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Sergio Pettis (8-5). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 181 points above Pettis's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Sergio Pettis.** We're leaning Cejudo here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Eddie Alvarez (4-2) taking on Justin Gaethje (9-5).

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 449 points above Alvarez's 1398. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Eddie Alvarez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Alvarez at 38% implied while our model sees 47% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Waterson-Gomez is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 298 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pennington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pennington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 483 points above Felder's 1363. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Felder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Paul Felder.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Felder, but our model sees only 41%. That 7-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9).

Medeiros carries a modest Elo edge (999 to 934), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Medeiros the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Yancy Medeiros.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Medeiros at 28% implied while our model sees 35% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features David Teymur (5-0) taking on Drakkar Klose (9-3). Teymur will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Klose at 1397 versus Teymur at 1295. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Teymur rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Teymur over Drakkar Klose.** The model gives Teymur a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-4) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Casey at 904 versus Herrig at 822. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Herrig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Casey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Herrig the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felice Herrig over Cortney Casey.** The model gives Herrig a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Herrig at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Cooper (2-3) taking on Angela Magana (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cooper at 803 versus Magana at 719. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cooper throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cooper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Cooper over Angela Magana.** The model is firm on this one: Cooper at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Cooper at 81% implied while our model sees 87% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Sabah Homasi (0-2).

Alhassan is rated at 973 — 156 points above Homasi's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Homasi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Homasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Sabah Homasi.** The model is firm on this one: Alhassan at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Alhassan at 68% implied while our model sees 78% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Jeremy Kimball (1-2). Reyes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 692 points above Kimball's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 21.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimball is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Jeremy Kimball.** The model is firm on this one: Reyes at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 81% implied while our model sees 85% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Willis (4-0) taking on Allen Crowder (1-1).

Willis is rated at 1256 — 410 points above Crowder's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Willis rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Willis throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Willis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Crowder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Willis over Allen Crowder.** We're leaning Willis here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Willis at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.