UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13).

Till is rated at 1296 — 242 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Till brings a versatile approach, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Till a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Till at 42% implied while our model sees 64% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-3).

Kowalkiewicz is rated at 871 — 163 points above Esquibel's 708. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esquibel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Esquibel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jodie Esquibel. The model is firm on this one: Kowalkiewicz at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Kowalkiewicz at 81% implied while our model sees 87% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Blachowicz is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 634 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Clark's striker approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Blachowicz, but our model sees only 37%. That 4-point gap favoring Clark is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Oskar Piechota (2-3) taking on Jonathan Wilson (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Piechota at 831, Wilson at 811. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Piechota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oskar Piechota over Jonathan Wilson. We're leaning Piechota here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Piechota at 64% implied while our model sees 73% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Marcin Held (0-3) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-4).

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 295 points above Held's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast has won 5 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Held throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Held is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Held over Nasrat Haqparast. The model is firm on this one: Held at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-3). Stasiak will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stasiak at 873 versus Kelleher at 766. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damian Stasiak over Brian Kelleher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stasiak at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Kelleher, but our model sees only 47%. That 4-point gap favoring Stasiak is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-2) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Alvey.

Emeev is rated at 1047 — 313 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Emeev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emeev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Sam Alvey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Emeev at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Emeev, but our model sees only 51%. That 9-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Artem Lobov (2-4). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 195 points above Lobov's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Artem Lobov. The model is firm on this one: Fili at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Fili at 62% implied while our model sees 78% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Salim Touahri (0-2).

Alves carries a modest Elo edge (895 to 854), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Touahri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Salim Touahri. We're leaning Alves here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Aspen Ladd (4-2) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6).

Ladd is rated at 1124 — 253 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ladd's wrestler game against Lansberg's striker approach. Ladd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lansberg brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ladd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Lina Lansberg. The model is firm on this one: Ladd at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Ladd at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1). Arantes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Emmett is rated at 1356 — 430 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Arantes's wrestler approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Arantes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Emmett over Felipe Arantes. We're leaning Emmett here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.