UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Saturday, October 7, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 5/9(56%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✓
Main Card
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R3)
Ferguson 77%23% Lee
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Lee)
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R5)
Johnson 92%8% Borg
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 90% (+2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Johnson)
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R1)
Werdum 73%27% Harris
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +611(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Werdum)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mara Romero Borella won by Submission (R1)
Borella 36%64% Faria
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 34% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Faria)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Faria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faria)
Lightweight
Dariush 73%27% Dunham
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Dunham)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Cody Stamann won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stamann 68%32% Duquesnoy
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (+28.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -115(favors Duquesnoy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Duquesnoy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.0(favors Stamann)
Lightweight
Vannata 52%48% Green
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-11.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Poliana Botelho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Botelho 40%60% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 59% (-19.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +98(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Gonzalez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Gonzalez)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Schnell 42%58% Beltran
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 51% (-8.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Schnell)
Early Prelims
FlyweightMISS
John Moraga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraga 40%60% Magomed
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -32(favors Magomed)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Magomed)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Magomed)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 59%41% Leites
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 62% (-2.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -93(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Leites)