UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lee at 1197 versus Ferguson at 1065. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's knockout artist game against Lee's wrestler approach. Ferguson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Kevin Lee.** The model gives Ferguson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Ferguson, but our model sees only 65%. That 6-point gap favoring Lee is worth watching.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Ray Borg (7-4). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 431 points above Borg's 1172. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Ray Borg.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 361 points above Harris's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Walt Harris.** We're leaning Werdum here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mara Romero Borella (2-4) taking on Kalindra Faria (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Borella at 756, Faria at 762. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faria throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Faria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kalindra Faria over Mara Romero Borella.** The model gives Faria a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Borella at 34% implied while our model sees 42% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 417 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Evan Dunham.** We're leaning Dariush here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Tom Duquesnoy (1-1). Duquesnoy will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duquesnoy is rated at 1103 — 171 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duquesnoy throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Stamann over Tom Duquesnoy.** The model gives Stamann a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stamann at 40% implied while our model sees 57% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Lando Vannata (4-6-2) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Green is rated at 1176 — 277 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lando Vannata over King Green.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vannata at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Vannata, but our model sees only 52%. That 11-point gap favoring Green is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Poliana Botelho (3-3) taking on Pearl Gonzalez (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Botelho at 859, Gonzalez at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzalez throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzalez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Botelho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pearl Gonzalez over Poliana Botelho.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gonzalez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Botelho, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Gonzalez is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Marco Beltran (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Schnell at 899 versus Beltran at 817. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Schnell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Beltran is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Schnell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Schnell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Beltran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marco Beltran over Matt Schnell.** The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Schnell, but our model sees only 35%. That 15-point gap favoring Beltran is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Bibulatov Magomed (1-1).

Moraga is rated at 1166 — 254 points above Magomed's 912. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomed throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomed is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Magomed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bibulatov Magomed over John Moraga.** The model gives Magomed a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Thales Leites (12-8). Leites will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1176 — 252 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Leites's all-rounder approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Leites is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Tavares over Thales Leites.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.