UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6). Preux will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Okami at 1061 versus Preux at 917. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Okami's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Okami brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Ovince Saint Preux.** The model gives Okami a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gadelha.

Gadelha carries a modest Elo edge (1187 to 1115), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gadelha looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gadelha the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Gadelha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Jessica Andrade.** We're leaning Gadelha here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Dong Hyun Ma (3-4) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ma.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ma at 838 versus Gomi at 732. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ma is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Ma over Takanori Gomi.** We're leaning Ma here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gokhan Saki (1-0) taking on Henrique da Silva (2-3). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Saki is rated at 959 — 200 points above Silva's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Saki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gokhan Saki over Henrique da Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saki at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1) taking on Rolando Dy (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ishihara at 817, Dy at 813. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Teruto Ishihara over Rolando Dy.** The model gives Ishihara a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Yuta Sasaki (4-4). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Formiga at 1149 versus Sasaki at 1009. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Formiga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sasaki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sasaki the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sasaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sasaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jussier Formiga over Yuta Sasaki.** The model is firm on this one: Formiga at 80%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Keita Nakamura (4-6) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nakamura at 987 versus Morono at 868. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nakamura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Keita Nakamura.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morono at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Syuri Kondo (1-2) taking on Chan-Mi Jeon (0-1).

Jeon carries a modest Elo edge (846 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jeon throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jeon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kondo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chan-Mi Jeon over Syuri Kondo.** The model gives Jeon a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Kondo, but our model sees only 36%. That 18-point gap favoring Jeon is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Shinsho Anzai (2-1) taking on Luke Jumeau (2-1). Jumeau is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Anzai carries a modest Elo edge (1056 to 1005), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anzai throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anzai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jumeau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Jumeau over Shinsho Anzai.** We're leaning Jumeau here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Daichi Abe (1-1) taking on Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3). Lim is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Abe carries a modest Elo edge (923 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Abe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daichi Abe over Hyun Gyu Lim.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Abe at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Abe at 48% implied while our model sees 51% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.