The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Friday, July 7, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gaethje 53%47% Johnson
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -414(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Johnson)
WelterweightHIT
Jesse Taylor won by Submission (R2)
Taylor 57%43% Lima
LEAN
→Elo gap: +53(favors Taylor)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Lima)
LightweightMISS
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Split (R3)
Klose 42%58% Diakiese
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -157(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Diakiese)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cannonier 63%37% Roehrick
LEAN
→Elo gap: +127(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Roehrick)
MiddleweightMISS
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 45%55% Theodorou
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Theodorou)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jordan Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 66%34% Fortuna
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -31(favors Fortuna)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Fortuna)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Johnson)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 44%56% Yoder
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Yoder)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Yoder)
WelterweightHIT
James Krause won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krause 66%34% Gallicchio
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +201(favors Krause)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Krause)
Light HeavyweightHIT
CB Dollaway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dollaway 51%49% Herman
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Dollaway)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tecia Pennington won by Submission (R2)
Pennington 69%31% Lima
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lima)
FeatherweightMISS
Gray Maynard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maynard 46%54% Ishihara
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Ishihara)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Ishihara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Maynard)