The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 603 points above Johnson's 1245. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Johnson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Johnson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Michael Johnson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jesse Taylor (0-1) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Taylor at 949, Lima at 943. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jesse Taylor over Dhiego Lima.** The model gives Taylor a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7). Diakiese will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Klose is rated at 1397 — 347 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Drakkar Klose.** The model gives Diakiese a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Nick Roehrick (0-0).

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 509 points above Roehrick's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Roehrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roehrick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Nick Roehrick.** The model gives Cannonier a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Elias Theodorou (8-2).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 345 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Theodorou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Brad Tavares.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Theodorou at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jordan Johnson (3-0) taking on Marcel Fortuna (1-1). Johnson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1282 — 359 points above Fortuna's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fortuna throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Fortuna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Johnson over Marcel Fortuna.** We're leaning Johnson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1074 — 308 points above Yoder's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ashley Yoder over Angela Hill.** The model gives Yoder a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Tom Gallicchio (0-0).

Krause is rated at 1436 — 477 points above Gallicchio's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Krause is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Gallicchio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Krause over Tom Gallicchio.** We're leaning Krause here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herman at 1045 versus Dollaway at 965. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Ed Herman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Juliana Lima (3-3). Lima is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 305 points above Lima's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Juliana Lima.** We're leaning Pennington here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1).

Maynard is rated at 975 — 158 points above Ishihara's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maynard's all-rounder game against Ishihara's striker approach. Maynard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ishihara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Teruto Ishihara over Gray Maynard.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ishihara at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.