UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). Miocic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 656 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Junior Dos Santos.** We're leaning Miocic here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jedrzejczyk carries a modest Elo edge (1192 to 1115), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's striker game against Andrade's all-rounder approach. Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Jessica Andrade.** The model gives Jedrzejczyk a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Jedrzejczyk, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Andrade is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 208 points above Maia's 1371. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demian Maia over Jorge Masvidal.** The model gives Maia a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 47% implied while our model sees 65% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Yair Rodriguez (10-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 374 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edgar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Yair Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edgar at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features David Branch (4-4) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jotko at 1222 versus Branch at 1136. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Branch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over David Branch.** The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Eddie Alvarez (4-2) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8). Poirier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 283 points above Alvarez's 1398. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alvarez's striker game against Poirier's submission artist approach. Alvarez brings a versatile approach, while Poirier is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Eddie Alvarez.** The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Alvarez, but our model sees only 41%. That 5-point gap favoring Poirier is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jason Knight (4-4) taking on Chas Skelly (7-3).

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 264 points above Knight's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Knight's knockout artist game against Skelly's wrestler approach. Knight is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Skelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Chas Skelly.** We're leaning Knight here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Knight at 49% implied while our model sees 66% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chase Sherman (4-10) taking on Rashad Coulter (0-3). Sherman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sherman carries a modest Elo edge (822 to 757), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Coulter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Coulter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chase Sherman over Rashad Coulter.** The model gives Sherman a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sherman at 51% implied while our model sees 63% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Marco Polo Reyes (4-3). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Vick is rated at 1026 — 254 points above Reyes's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vick's wrestler game against Reyes's striker approach. Vick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Reyes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Vick over Marco Polo Reyes.** The model is firm on this one: Vick at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Vick at 78% implied while our model sees 92% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Jessica Aguilar (1-3). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Casey carries a modest Elo edge (904 to 827), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Casey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cortney Casey over Jessica Aguilar.** We're leaning Casey here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Casey at 58% implied while our model sees 74% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7).

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 215 points above Benitez's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barzola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Benitez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Barzola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benitez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Enrique Barzola.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Benitez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3) taking on Joachim Christensen (1-2). Christensen is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Christensen at 862 versus Antigulov at 776. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christensen throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Antigulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 13.4 more per 15 minutes. Antigulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gadzhimurad Antigulov over Joachim Christensen.** The model is firm on this one: Antigulov at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.