UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Saturday, April 15, 2017·Kansas City, Missouri, USA
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✓
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R3)
Johnson 90%10% Reis
STRONGMarket: 88% (+2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +384(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Reis)
Women's Strawweight✓
Rose Namajunas won by Submission (R2)
Namajunas 54%46% Waterson-Gomez
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Waterson-Gomez)
Middleweight✓
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Whittaker 56%44% Souza
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Souza)
Featherweight✓
Renato Moicano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moicano 57%43% Stephens
LEANMarket: 38% (+18.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -234(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Moicano)
Heavyweight✓
Alexander Volkov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkov 77%23% Nelson
STRONGMarket: 59% (+17.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Nelson)
Bantamweight✓
Tom Duquesnoy won by KO/TKO (R2)
Duquesnoy 84%16% Williams
STRONGMarket: 89% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Williams)
Lightweight✓
Rashid Magomedov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Magomedov 72%28% Green
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
Flyweight✓
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 57%43% Smolka
LEANMarket: 64% (-6.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Elliott)
Bantamweight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 87%13% Mendes
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +229(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Mendes)
Light Heavyweight✗
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 49%51% Collier
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-8.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Collier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Clark)
Middleweight✗
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R3)
Smith 27%73% Sanchez
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Sanchez)
Welterweight✓
Zak Cummings won by Submission (R1)
Cummings 85%15% Coy
STRONGMarket: 81% (+3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +276(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cummings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Coy)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vieira 60%40% Evans-Smith
LEANMarket: 39% (+20.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Evans-Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Vieira)