UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Wilson Reis (7-5).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 521 points above Reis's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Wilson Reis.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 514 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Namajunas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Namajunas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waterson-Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Waterson-Gomez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Namajunas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 341 points above Souza's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Souza's wrestler approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Jacare Souza.** The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 601 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Moicano over Jeremy Stephens.** The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 38% implied while our model sees 57% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 625 points above Nelson's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkov's all-rounder game against Nelson's striker approach. Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Roy Nelson.** The model is firm on this one: Volkov at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 59% implied while our model sees 77% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tom Duquesnoy (1-1) taking on Patrick Williams (1-2). Williams will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duquesnoy is rated at 1103 — 290 points above Williams's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Duquesnoy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Duquesnoy over Patrick Williams.** The model is firm on this one: Duquesnoy at 84%. The market implies 89% for Duquesnoy, but our model sees only 84%. That 5-point gap favoring Williams is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (4-1) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Magomedov is rated at 1374 — 198 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashid Magomedov over King Green.** We're leaning Magomedov here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Magomedov, but our model sees only 72%. That 4-point gap favoring Green is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 367 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Smolka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Elliott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Elliott over Louis Smolka.** The model gives Elliott a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Elliott, but our model sees only 57%. That 6-point gap favoring Smolka is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Augusto Mendes (1-1). Sterling will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 696 points above Mendes's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Augusto Mendes.** The model is firm on this one: Sterling at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Jake Collier (5-8). Collier is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Clark is rated at 944 — 150 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Collier over Devin Clark.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Collier at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Clark, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Collier is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Andrew Sanchez (5-4). Smith is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Smith at 1070 versus Sanchez at 932. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Smith's all-rounder game against Sanchez's striker approach. Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrew Sanchez over Anthony Smith.** We're leaning Sanchez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Nathan Coy (1-1). Cummings is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 408 points above Coy's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummings throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Coy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Coy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zak Cummings over Nathan Coy.** The model is firm on this one: Cummings at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Cummings at 81% implied while our model sees 85% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5).

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 536 points above Evans-Smith's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vieira's wrestler game against Evans-Smith's striker approach. Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Ashlee Evans-Smith.** The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 39% implied while our model sees 60% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.