UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Jung will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 1528 — 460 points above Bermudez's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Chan Sung Jung.** The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jung at 37% implied while our model sees 42% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-4) taking on Alexa Grasso (8-4-1).

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 554 points above Herrig's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Felice Herrig.** The model is firm on this one: Grasso at 78%. The market implies 26% for Herrig, but our model sees only 22%. That 4-point gap favoring Grasso is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-3). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vick at 1026, Trujillo at 1031. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Trujillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Vick over Abel Trujillo.** The model gives Vick a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vick at 52% implied while our model sees 60% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Preux will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 584 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Volkan Oezdemir.** The model gives Preux a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcel Fortuna (1-1) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6). Hamilton is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fortuna is rated at 923 — 202 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fortuna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Marcel Fortuna.** The model gives Hamilton a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Fortuna at 35% implied while our model sees 41% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Andrade carries a modest Elo edge (1115 to 1074), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Angela Hill.** The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Adam Milstead (1-1) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5). Blaydes will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 779 points above Milstead's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Milstead throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Milstead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Adam Milstead.** The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 80%. The market implies 26% for Milstead, but our model sees only 20%. That 7-point gap favoring Blaydes is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 250 points above Gruetzemacher's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Skelly's submission artist game against Gruetzemacher's striker approach. Skelly is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chas Skelly over Chris Gruetzemacher.** The model gives Skelly a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Skelly, but our model sees only 55%. That 18-point gap favoring Gruetzemacher is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Michinori Tanaka (2-2). Ramos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tanaka at 929 versus Ramos at 828. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanaka throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michinori Tanaka over Ricardo Ramos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanaka at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 43% implied while our model sees 49% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-4). Rawlings is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 418 points above Rawlings's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Bec Rawlings.** The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 78% implied while our model sees 82% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Price will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morono carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Niko Price over Alex Morono.** We're leaning Price here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 49% for Morono, but our model sees only 34%. That 16-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Daniel Jolly (0-1).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 776 points above Jolly's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jolly throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jolly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Daniel Jolly.** We're leaning Jr. here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.