UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Bantamweight✓
Valentina Shevchenko won by Submission (R2)
Shevchenko 54%46% Pena
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -194(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pena)
Welterweight✓
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R2)
Masvidal 53%47% Cerrone
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+6.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -339(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Cerrone)
Heavyweight✓
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 83%17% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 78% (+5.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Arlovski)
Featherweight✗
Jason Knight won by Submission (R2)
Knight 37%63% Caceres
LEANMarket: 60% (-23.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Knight)
Middleweight✓
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alvey 66%34% Marquardt
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Marquardt)
Bantamweight✗
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Split (R3)
Assuncao 50%50% Sterling
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Sterling)
Welterweight✗
Li Jingliang won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jingliang 37%63% Nash
LEANMarket: 57% (-20.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +21(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Jingliang)
Light Heavyweight✗
Jordan Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 34%66% Silva
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -56(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Silva)
Middleweight✓
Eric Spicely won by Submission (R1)
Spicely 57%43% Chirico
LEANMarket: 53% (+4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Spicely)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Spicely)
Light Heavyweight✓
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lima 51%49% Kimball
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -16(favors Kimball)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kimball)
Flyweight✗
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pantoja 47%53% Shelton
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-1.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Shelton)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Shelton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Shelton)
Lightweight✓
Jason Gonzalez won by Submission (R1)
Gonzalez 55%45% Cottrell
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -65(favors Cottrell)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Gonzalez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cottrell)