UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Julianna Pena (8-3). Pena will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 475 points above Pena's 1323. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Julianna Pena.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shevchenko at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13).

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 525 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's all-rounder game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Donald Cerrone.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Masvidal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Masvidal at 46% implied while our model sees 53% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Ngannou will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 1291 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ngannou's knockout artist game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ngannou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Andrei Arlovski.** The model is firm on this one: Ngannou at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 78% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jason Knight (4-4) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 244 points above Knight's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Knight's knockout artist game against Caceres's all-rounder approach. Knight is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Caceres over Jason Knight.** The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Knight, but our model sees only 37%. That 23-point gap favoring Caceres is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11).

Marquardt is rated at 1064 — 330 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Alvey over Nate Marquardt.** We're leaning Alvey here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 59% implied while our model sees 66% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Aljamain Sterling (16-5). Sterling is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 585 points above Assuncao's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Raphael Assuncao.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sterling at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Assuncao, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Sterling is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Bobby Nash (0-2). Nash will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 524 points above Nash's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Nash has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bobby Nash over Li Jingliang.** The model gives Nash a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Jingliang, but our model sees only 37%. That 20-point gap favoring Nash is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jordan Johnson (3-0) taking on Henrique da Silva (2-3). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1282 — 523 points above Silva's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Henrique da Silva over Jordan Johnson.** We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Eric Spicely (2-4) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Chirico carries a modest Elo edge (788 to 727), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Spicely's wrestler game against Chirico's striker approach. Spicely looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Chirico brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spicely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Spicely over Alessio Di Chirico.** The model gives Spicely a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Spicely at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Jeremy Kimball (1-2). Lima will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 439 points above Kimball's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimball is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kimball has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Jeremy Kimball.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lima at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Lima, but our model sees only 51%. That 9-point gap favoring Kimball is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Eric Shelton (2-3).

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 576 points above Shelton's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shelton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shelton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Shelton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Shelton over Alexandre Pantoja.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shelton at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jason Gonzalez (1-2) taking on JC Cottrell (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzalez at 887 versus Cottrell at 806. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzalez throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cottrell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Gonzalez over JC Cottrell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gonzalez at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.