UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Sean Brady (8-2) taking on Leon Edwards (14-5). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Brady at 1755, Edwards at 1747. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brady throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Brady over Leon Edwards. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brady at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (9-1) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2).

Ulberg is rated at 1855 — 152 points above Blachowicz's 1703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's knockout artist game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Ulberg is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Jan Blachowicz. The model is firm on this one: Ulberg at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Ulberg at 73% implied while our model sees 82% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-6). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (1437 to 1375), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Gunnar Nelson. The model gives Holland a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 45% implied while our model sees 59% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexia Thainara (3-0) taking on Molly McCann (7-7). Thainara will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Thainara is rated at 1325 — 449 points above McCann's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Thainara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexia Thainara over Molly McCann. We're leaning Thainara here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Thainara at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (6-2) taking on Jordan Vucenic (0-2).

Duncan is rated at 1379 — 559 points above Vucenic's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Vucenic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Vucenic over Chris Duncan. The model gives Vucenic a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Duncan at 26% implied while our model sees 38% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (11-3) taking on Morgan Charriere (3-3).

Wood is rated at 1435 — 219 points above Charriere's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Wood rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Charriere is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Nathaniel Wood. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Charriere at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Padilla (4-0) taking on Jai Herbert (3-5-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Padilla is rated at 1399 — 353 points above Herbert's 1046. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Padilla rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Padilla throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Padilla is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Herbert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Padilla over Jai Herbert. The model gives Padilla a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Padilla at 47% implied while our model sees 62% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Lone'er Kavanagh (3-1) taking on Felipe dos Santos (1-3). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kavanagh is rated at 1256 — 369 points above Santos's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kavanagh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh over Felipe dos Santos. We're leaning Kavanagh here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-10) taking on Mick Parkin (4-1).

Parkin carries a modest Elo edge (1359 to 1301), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Parkin has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parkin throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Parkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mick Parkin over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Parkin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (7-2) taking on Andrey Pulyaev (1-2).

Duncan is rated at 1617 — 587 points above Pulyaev's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pulyaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Andrey Pulyaev. The model is firm on this one: Duncan at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Duncan at 78% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shauna Bannon (2-2) taking on Puja Tomar (1-1). Bannon will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bannon at 991 versus Tomar at 850. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tomar throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tomar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tomar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shauna Bannon over Puja Tomar. We're leaning Bannon here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bannon at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Caolan Loughran (2-2) taking on Nathan Fletcher (1-2).

Loughran is rated at 1089 — 234 points above Fletcher's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loughran throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.6 more per 15 minutes. Loughran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathan Fletcher over Caolan Loughran. We're leaning Fletcher here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 42% for Loughran, but our model sees only 30%. That 13-point gap favoring Fletcher is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Kaue Fernandes (3-1) taking on Guram Kutateladze (2-3).

Fernandes is rated at 1294 — 301 points above Kutateladze's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kutateladze throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kutateladze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kaue Fernandes over Guram Kutateladze. The model gives Fernandes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.