UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Saturday, December 17, 2016·Sacramento, California, USA
Model Record: 6/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Strawweight✗
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Submission (R1)
Waterson-Gomez 42%58% VanZant
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Waterson-Gomez)
Welterweight✓
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R2)
Gall 56%44% Northcutt
LEANMarket: 58% (-2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Gall)
Bantamweight✓
Urijah Faber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Faber 87%13% Pickett
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +335(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pickett)
Welterweight✗
Alan Jouban won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jouban 42%58% Perry
LEANMarket: 45% (-2.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Perry)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Jouban)
Light Heavyweight✗
Paul Craig won by Submission (R2)
Craig 30%70% Silva
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -230(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.6(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
Featherweight✗
Mizuto Hirota won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hirota 35%65% Miller
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (-15.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -114(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Hirota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Hirota)
Welterweight✓
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Covington 73%27% Barberena
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Covington)
Welterweight✓
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 58%42% Moontasri
LEANMarket: 51% (+7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moontasri)
Lightweight✗
Josh Emmett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emmett 49%51% Holtzman
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-12.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Holtzman)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Leslie Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 24%76% Aldana
STRONGMarket: 27% (-3.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -135(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Aldana)
Bantamweight✓
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wineland 71%29% Mizugaki
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+6.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mizugaki)
Flyweight✓
Hector Sandoval won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sandoval 52%48% Serrano
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -159(favors Serrano)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Sandoval)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Serrano)
Welterweight✗
Sultan Aliev won by Decision - Split (R3)
Aliev 39%61% Velickovic
LEANMarket: 41% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -166(favors Velickovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Aliev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Velickovic)